NEW YORK, NY — Federal authorities have arrested a special operations soldier accused of making more than $400,000 by betting on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture and removal from office. The Justice Department said Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in Maduro’s capture and then used what prosecutors call confidential government information to trade on Polymarket.
Investigators say Van Dyke placed more than $33,000 in wagers just days before President Donald Trump announced Maduro had been captured during Operation Absolute Resolve. Prosecutors say the bets eventually generated more than $409,000 in profits and set off scrutiny inside the prediction-market industry.
How prosecutors say the wagers were made
According to the indictment, Van Dyke’s trades included bets on whether Maduro would be out of office by Jan. 31 and whether the United States would invade Venezuela. The filing says he created an account in December 2025 and spread $33,933 across four predictions tied to the Venezuelan operation.
The largest position was a $32,537 wager that Maduro would be out of office by the end of January. That bet alone produced a reported 1,242% return, adding up to $404,222 in profit, according to Polymarket’s figures cited in the case.
Federal prosecutors charged Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud and wire fraud. It was not immediately clear whether he had a lawyer.
Allegations of concealment after unusual trading drew notice
Prosecutors say Van Dyke later noticed reports about unusual trading connected to the mission and tried to cover his tracks. The indictment alleges that he attempted to delete his Polymarket account and changed the email address on his cryptocurrency exchange account after the bets had already been placed.
The charging document says he was supposed to protect the information instead of using it for personal gain. It also says he tried to obscure the source of the proceeds and hide his connection to the accounts involved in the trades.
The Justice Department has not described in detail what information Van Dyke allegedly had before the public announcement, but prosecutors say it was confidential and tied to the operation that led to Maduro’s capture.
Polymarket flags suspicious activity and cooperates with investigators
Polymarket said it referred the suspicious wagers to the Justice Department and worked with investigators. In a statement posted to X, the company said insider trading has no place on its platform and called the arrest evidence that the system works.
Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction platform, allowing users to bet anonymously on future events through yes-or-no contracts. The company operates in a fast-growing corner of financial markets that has drawn closer attention from regulators and prosecutors as suspiciously timed trades have emerged.
The case is believed to be the first time the Justice Department has prosecuted an insider-trading case involving a prediction market. Federal commodity regulators oversee much of the sector, but the Van Dyke case may test how older fraud laws apply to newer platforms.
Trump comments on betting and the broader market debate
Asked about the case Thursday in the Oval Office, Trump compared the wagers to baseball player Pete Rose betting on his own team. He said he would look into the matter and added that the world had become “somewhat of a casino.”
Trump also said he was not in favor of these kinds of betting markets in principle, but that they are now part of modern life. His comments came as prosecutors and regulators continue to examine whether prediction markets can be gamed by people with inside access to government developments.
The president also described the Maduro operation as carefully planned and said it involved highly trained personnel working with U.S. law enforcement. Prosecutors, however, have not said exactly how Van Dyke’s military role connected to the mission or what information he allegedly knew in advance.
Why the case could matter beyond one soldier
Legal experts say the case may open the door to more prosecutions if authorities can show that federal workers or service members used privileged information to profit on prediction platforms. Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, said earlier this year that his office was looking at ways to pursue cases that resemble insider trading.
Noah Solowiejczyk, a former federal prosecutor now at Fenwick & West, said the Commodity Exchange Act may give prosecutors a path in cases like this. He also warned that jurors may need help understanding how prediction markets work and why the trades matter.
The Maduro case is not the first such matter worldwide. In February, an Israeli army reservist and a civilian were charged in Israel in connection with using classified information to place bets on Polymarket.
